Portfolio Positioning Performance Review Long-Term Perspectives Where We Are Finding Opportunities
Since our founding more than 40 years ago in 1969, Davis Advisors' mission as a firm has been to serve our shareholders and to do so with high integrity. Mindful of the enormous responsibility that comes with serving as a steward of others' capital, we are firmly committed to:
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Investment excellence: Davis Advisors conducts rigorous fundamental research with the goal of producing solid long-term investment results for shareholders.
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Sharing wisdom and perspectives about investor behavior: We strive to promote healthy investor behavior, which we firmly believe can positively influence the results that shareholders ultimately realize.
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Open and honest communications: We seek to communicate with our shareholders in a manner that we would desire if our roles were reversed.
As a sign of our commitment to all those who have entrusted capital to us, the Davis family, Davis Advisors, employees, and directors have more than $2 billion of their own money invested side by side with fellow shareholders in the various mutual funds our firm manages.
Portfolio PositioningMarket conditions may vary from period to period, yet the core tenets of the Davis investment discipline and approach remain the same. We start with the premise that stocks represent fractional ownership in real businesses. We seek to purchase durable businesses at value prices and hold them for the long term. We believe that owning shares of well-managed businesses with attractive reinvestment rates, purchased at reasonable valuations and held for years to allow the power of compounding to work, is a reliable method for building capital over long investment horizons.
By definition, owning shares of companies for years or even decades means that some, perhaps all, of our investments will traverse rough patches along the way, whether they are specific to a company, an industry or the broader market. We know in advance that we are going to own businesses in periods of rising interest rates, falling interest rates, inflation, disinflation, a weak dollar, a strong dollar, and so forth. Therefore, when we think about purchasing shares of a company, we have to weigh carefully up front whether we think the business can withstand inevitable shocks in addition to considering the likelihood the business can grow earnings power (and therefore intrinsic worth) over full cycles. Then, company by company, we set out to build a durable, all-weather portfolio of businesses that can compound over the long term.
Our Portfolio holds three primary categories of investments:
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Market leaders with strong balance sheets
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"Out-of-the-spotlight" businesses
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Headline risk or contrarian investments
Market leaders with strong balance sheets— In many cases these are global companies with universally known brands, earnings that are well diversified from the standpoint of product line and geography, and fortress balance sheets. At this time more than 85% of the Portfolio is invested in companies with market capitalizations in excess of $10 billion and combined revenues totaling more than $2.1 trillion. These businesses span a broad range of global industries from financial services to consumer products to technology to retailing, among others. They provide a core foundation of stability within the Portfolio and offer in our view a high probability of long-term sustainable returns through capital appreciation and dividends.
A representative market leader in the Portfolio is Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company with a market capitalization of roughly $200 billion and interests in insurance, reinsurance, railroads, utilities, manufacturing, retailing, and a host of other business lines. Under the steady leadership of Warren Buffett and team the company has grown book value at more than 20% per year on average over the past four and a half decades, more than double the return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Given its increasing size, the company's prospective returns will likely be lower than its historical record, but we believe Berkshire Hathaway is well positioned through its operating businesses as well as its investment portfolio to increase earnings power considerably over the next five to 10 years.
Another example of a market leader and a relatively new addition to the Portfolio is Coca-Cola (Coke), the world's most valuable brand according to the marketing research organization Interbrand. As the largest global beverage company with more than twice the annual sales of its nearest competitor, Coke has an enviable and expanding portfolio of still and carbonated products that generates consistent growth. Tracing the company's progress in recent years, in 1997 the company owned five brands that each generated $1 billion or more in annual sales. Today the company has 13 billion-dollar brands and expects to have 30 by 2020. A large portion of this growth will likely be generated in developing and emerging economies where Coke is investing heavily. Already some 75% of current revenues are derived from international markets and Coke expects this growth to continue as more and more of the world's population joins the middle class.
Hewlett-Packard (HP), the world's largest information technology company, is a third representative market leader in the Portfolio. HP ranks among the top 10 Fortune 500 companies doing business in more than 170 countries and generating annual revenue of more than $114 billion. It offers an array of products to individuals and businesses including corporate technology consulting and software, enterprise servers and storage hardware, and is a leading provider of personal computers and printers. Under its capable CEO, Mark Hurd, the company has significantly reduced its cost base allowing HP to navigate the economic downturn with relative ease. HP is also in the process of fully integrating its 2008 acquisition of Electronic Data Systems (EDS), a leader in outsourced corporate computing and information consulting. We believe that HP is well positioned with the right culture and array of businesses to remain a leader in tomorrow's technologies.
Costco Wholesale, a membership-based retailer with more than 560 locations predominantly in North America, is also a market leader. Costco opened its first few warehouses in 1983, generating $101 million in sales (with a net start-up loss of $3.3 million) in its first year of operations and ending the year with 244,000 members. In fiscal year 2009, Costco generated sales of almost $70 billion and net income of more than $1 billion. It has more than 20 million individual members and more than 5 million business members whose annual fees collectively amount to more than $1.5 billion. Costco's key competitive advantages are threefold: First, the company is the low cost operator in an enormous market. Second, the company generates much of its earnings through membership fees, an income source not available to traditional retailers. And third, Costco's value proposition for members is virtually unique, with markups capped for the most part at 15%. This remarkable business model has enabled Costco to build its franchise value from $7.5 million in start-up capital to a market value in excess of $26 billion today, generating very solid returns for long-term shareholders along the way.
We believe market leaders such as Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Hewlett-Packard, and Costco Wholesale that possess strong brands, proven management, fortress balance sheets, and scale advantages are well positioned to create significant value for long-term shareholders.
Out-of-the-spotlight businesses— After market leaders, the next major category of investments in the Portfolio is out-of-the-spotlight businesses. These are lesser known companies with attractive economics that in our opinion should eventually command higher valuations. Their appeal may take time to gain recognition, often because these businesses are smaller or operate in a mundane non-consumer-oriented industry. Given the right leadership and attractive reinvestment rates, these low-profile holdings can provide the opportunity for the "double play" of expanding multiples on expanding earnings, which can turn a company with a solid earnings growth rate into a stellar investment. As a general rule, out-of-the-spotlight holdings tend to be boring but steady compounding machines.
An example of an out-of-the-spotlight holding is Sealed Air, one of the largest companies in the profitable yet mundane business of manufacturing an array of protective wraps and packaging used in the industrial, food and medical industries. Sealed Air's best-known products include Bubble Wrap and Jiffy mailers, although much of its protective packaging is sold directly to manufacturers and distributors who use it to protect such sensitive merchandise as personal computers from damage during transport. To help protect food, the company makes vacuum-sealed shrink wraps often used to safely seal meats as well as different types of cellophane packaging frequently found in the deli, meat and fresh produce sections of local grocery stores. What Sealed Air lacks in terms of household recognition, it more than makes up for with its favorable returns on invested capital in our opinion.
Out-of-the-spotlight holdings can also include hard asset-related businesses such as Canadian Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations focused in Western Canada (including sizable reserves of oil sands), the North Sea and Offshore West Africa. Canadian Natural Resources has a strong track record of generating shareholder value and its managers and directors own more than $1.6 billion of the company's stock. The company stands to benefit in our view from disciplined growth of production as well as from the emergence of a global middle class whose energy consumption is likely to grow over time.
Headline risk or contrarian investments— On a very selective basis we make contrarian investments. These often involve controversial situations where the market is discounting a company's share price to reflect a perception of risk that we think is greater than the probable economic risk to the business's long-term fundamentals. Typically a minor portion of our portfolios in percentage terms, headline risk investments can sometimes be difficult for clients to understand because they beg the question, "Don't you read the papers?" But it is precisely because so many other investors automatically sell companies with near-term challenges, however surmountable, that the potential for high returns exists in many such instances. Our job is to ferret out opportunities that represent favorable risk/reward trade-offs and do our best to avoid the value traps. We will not get every investment right. However, overall this distinctly contrarian element of our investment discipline has been an important contributor to our long-term success and can be an effective and repeatable way to capitalize on herd mentality in the market. As an example, uncertainty associated with health care reform in the United States has created opportunity in recent months. In 2009 we were able to purchase shares of several high-quality pharmaceutical businesses including Pfizer at what we believe were highly attractive valuations.
Overall, the investments we have made in the three categories described above combine to form a total portfolio that we believe is well diversified and offers a high probability of producing satisfactory compound returns over full market cycles.
Performance Review
For the trailing 12 month period ending March 31, 2010 the S&P 500 Index delivered very solid returns, finishing the period up 49.77%, and Selected American Shares outperformed the benchmark. Longer term the Fund has outperformed the Index over the trailing one, five, 10 and 15 year periods as well as since Davis Advisors began managing the Fund in 1993, a testament in our view to the effectiveness of the fundamentals-based Davis investment discipline through a variety of market and economic conditions.
The Portfolio's results in the most recent 12 month period reflect strong performance among many individual holdings, particularly within the financials, energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors. (Sector allocations are a by-product of bottom-up stock selection and generally represent a cross section of market leaders, out-of-the-spotlight holdings and headline risk investments. We refer to sector-level performance here merely to provide a general framework for understanding the Portfolio's aggregate performance in the most recent 12 month period.)
Our financial holdings represent a diversified set of industries and business types and reflect our conviction in individual companies. Our holdings in this sector include JPMorgan Chase (money center bank), Wells Fargo & Company (regional bank), Progressive (personal lines auto insurer), and holding companies like Berkshire Hathaway and Loews with significant interests in utilities and insurance among other businesses. Consistent with our overall investment approach, we are interested in owning what we believe are durable, best-in-class franchises with expert managements, robust balance sheets and favorable competitive positions.
Our energy-related holdings consist predominantly of oil and natural gas exploration and production companies that have historically earned above-average returns on capital versus their peers and that in our view are trading at reasonable normalized valuations. These companies include Canadian Natural Resources, Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, and Devon Energy. We believe our energy holdings are capable of creating value for shareholders under a variety of economic and market conditions through the disciplined allocation of capital. They also stand to benefit potentially from the long-term tailwinds of a growing global middle class and a veritable industrial revolution taking place within certain developing economies.
Information technology has been one of the best performing areas of the Portfolio and the market over the last 12 months. Our technology holdings predominantly include workhorse category leaders in chips, online search and software as well as printing, personal computing and IT infrastructure such as Texas Instruments, Google, Microsoft, and Hewlett-Packard. We believe these businesses stand a high probability of compounding earnings by generating relatively high returns on capital and enjoy significant competitive barriers to entry.
Consumer-related holdings in the Portfolio include such varied businesses as News Corporation (diversified media company), Costco Wholesale (warehouse-style retailer), Coca-Cola (largest global beverage company), and Procter & Gamble (global consumer products manufacturer). Our particular selection of consumer-related holdings reflects the characteristics we look for in any business: (1) proven management, (2) a strong, profitable business model and (3) sustainable competitive advantages. We seek to buy such businesses when they are trading at a discount to our assessment of their true economic worth based on future earnings power.
Regarding notable portfolio changes over the past year, we added select pharmaceutical and other businesses in the health care area to the Portfolio, initiated a position in Coca-Cola and sold our position in Comcast.
To provide our clients with timely information, we have discussed Portfolio results for the trailing 12 month period. However, our investment discipline is based on a much longer term view. We evaluate each investment in the Portfolio based on its potential to create value for our clients over multi-year holding periods. Through bottom-up stock selection and rigorous fundamental research, we aim to construct a total portfolio that we believe is well diversified and has a high probability of producing satisfactory compound returns over full market cycles.
Long-Term Perspectives
In our experience, one of the keys to building long-term wealth is to avoid making emotional investment decisions. The way in which emotions can undermine an investor's ability to build long-term wealth was evident in 2009 when cautious investors poured a record $375 billion into bond funds while pulling close to $10 billion out of stocks. As a result, many investors missed the market's 26% return in 2009. While such a reaction reflects human nature on the heels of a difficult decade for stocks, successful investors recognize the importance of remaining unemotional when making investment decisions.
Applying an unemotional, objective approach to today's market environment suggests that long-term investors would be well served adding to, or maintaining, their equity allocation over the next decade. Why? Because historically disappointing decades for stocks have been followed by periods of attractive returns. This is illustrated in the chart below, which shows the 10 year returns for the market from 1928-2009. Returns of at least 5% are represented by the green bars and returns of less than 5% are represented by the red bars. Here are a few key points:
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From 1928 through 2009, there have been eleven 10 year periods where the market delivered disappointing returns of less than 5%.
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In every case, the decade following these disappointing decades produced satisfactory returns. (For instance, the -0.2% average annual return from 1928-1937 was followed by a 9.3% average annual return from 1938-1947.) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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These periods of recovery averaged 13% per year (ranging from a low of 7% to a high of 18%).
Ten Year Returns for the Market (1928-1963)
Ten Year Returns for the Market (1964-2009)
The fact that stocks have suffered through an awful decade is precisely why investors should be excited about their prospects for the next 10 years. Historically, it has been profitable to invest in the stock market after a period of poor returns. In our view, the coming decade should be no exception as many high-quality businesses are trading at very reasonable valuations today. Taking advantage of these opportunities, however, requires an unemotional, objective investment approach.
Where We Are Finding Opportunities
There are always opportunities and risks. In our view the keys to outperforming the market over the next decade, as we have done since Davis Advisors began managing the Fund in 1993, are: (1) to think long term rather than get caught up in short-term cycles, (2) to exercise a highly selective and disciplined approach with respect to business quality and valuation, and (3) to remain focused on indepth, bottom-up research.
Today we are finding compelling values in many areas of the market that in our view represent attractive avenues for compounding shareholders' capital over the next decade. Most of these opportunities fit within the following long-term themes:
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Globally dominant businesses—These industry leaders are characterized by strong pricing power, diversified earnings, healthy balance sheets, strong competitive moats, and durable business models. Because these businesses produce excess cash, they are not dependent on external funding.
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Beneficiaries of crisis—Certain companies' business model, capital position and management discipline allow them to take advantage of chaos. Given strong free cash flow, these companies are often able to use distressed prices to make investments, acquisitions or significant share buybacks at accretive prices.
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Select financial companies—Although the future is always uncertain, we believe that the financial services industry is not prone to obsolescence. People should always need basic banking services, insurance products, investment management advice, and other such services. Nonetheless, it is necessary to differentiate between strong and weak players in order to invest successfully in this area of the market.
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Energy, commodities and agriculture businesses—Well-managed companies in these areas are positioned to benefit from the inexorable long-term growth of a global middle class, which will result in increasing demand and potentially higher prices for most natural resources.
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Select special situations—These are highly opportunistic companies in diverse industries trading at steep discounts to intrinsic worth that may prove to be exceptional long-term investments in our view.
All of us at Davis Advisors thank you for your support. We are grateful and fortunate to have your confidence and will continue to work hard on your behalf. We look forward to continuing our investment journey together. ■
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Drawing from over 60 years of investing on Wall Street, the Davis family shares insights and wisdom on building wealth and the temperament needed to invest successfully.
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DAVIS DISTRIBUTORS, LLC 2949 East Elvira Road, Suite 101 Tucson, AZ 85756 1-800-243-1575
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